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☆ A recession in early 2025 could send the stock market tumbling 30%, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A recession by early next year could send stocks down 30%, says BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim. AdvertisementThere are two factors signaling a recession by year-end or early 2025, and a downturn could spark a 30% correction in stocks, according to BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim. "But eventually, the unemployment rate is going to take higher and that's going to lead to concerns about a recession." Ibrahim isn't alone in calling a recession and a steep plunge in the stock market. Wall Street veteran Gary Shilling, known for predicting the mid-2000s mortgage bubble, is also forecasting a 30% stock market crash by the end of this year, with a recession likely to crush speculative bets that have piled up in recent years.

Persons: Roukaya Ibrahim, Gary Shilling, —, Ibrahim, Ibrahim isn't Organizations: Wall Street, Service, Bloomberg Locations: Friday's, China, Europe

☆ A soft landing will be tough to achieve, and inflation has hit lower-income Americans hard, Citi CEO Jane Fraser says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A "soft landing" scenario is unlikely for the US economy, Citi CEO Jane Fraser said. "We're seeing a much more cautious low-income consumer," Fraser said. AdvertisementIt's going to be tough for the US to stick an economic soft landing, and rampant inflation is hitting lower-income Americans hard, Citi CEO Jane Fraser said. "It's hard to get a soft landing," Fraser told CNBC on Monday. Yet, Fraser cautioned against declaring a soft landing was a done deal.

Persons: Jane Fraser, Fraser, —, Gary Shilling, Roukaya Ibrahim Organizations: Citi, Service, CNBC, Federal Reserve

☆ The US will see a recession by year-end that could spark a 30% drop in the stock market, legendary forecaster Gary Shilling says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A coming recession could end up sparking a "violent correction" in stocks, Gary Shilling told BI. The top forecaster pointed to warning signs of a downturn, such as a weaker job market. AdvertisementInvestors should be prepared for a recession with the potential to send the stock market plummeting this year, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. That could be the final blow to the stock market rally fueled by investor overconfidence, causing stocks to drop by as much as 30%, Shilling said. Related storiesThe job market, for one, is "obviously slipping" as firms pull back on hiring, Shilling said.

Persons: Gary Shilling, —, overconfidence, Shilling, we've, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Employers, San Francisco, Treasury

☆ The job market looks rock-solid, but there are 4 signs it's weakening as labor trends mirror past recessions
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewToday's job market looks to be on solid footing, but there are subtle signs that hiring is starting to weaken, upping the odds that a recession strikes. The job market is already flashing key signs of weakness, and a hiring slowdown could be around the corner, Wall Street strategists have warned. Here are four signs the stellar US job market may be about to stumble:Advertisement1. But job-cut announcements rose to 257,254 over the first quarter, according to the career transitioning firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The risk of a coming recession could rise if the job market continues to slow, some forecasters have warned.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, it's Organizations: Service, Street, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Challenger, National Federation of Independent Business, CNBC

☆ The U.S. economy still faces a recession risk: Gary Shilling
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Andrea Miller | In Dreajmiller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. economy has avoided a recession so far but the risk of a deeper economic downturn still looms, according to financial analyst Gary Shilling. "Small businesses are very sensitive to economic conditions because they don't tend to be very heavily capitalized," Shilling told CNBC. However, the labor market at large is a key reason the U.S. has thus far avoided a recession. "You haven't had that weakness in labor markets that, I think, you normally would have had and would have [caused] a recession [in 2023]," Shilling said. However, Shilling is watching for signs of a slowing labor market.

Persons: Gary Shilling, Shilling, We've, it's Organizations: CNBC, Fed, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Robert Kiyosaki, David Einhorn, and Gary Shilling are all worried about inflation — and so is the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The central bank's current chief, Jerome Powell, is yet to defeat his mythical beast — and Wall Street is getting worried. Powell warned on Wednesday that the Fed's fight against inflation isn't over after annualized price growth accelerated to 3.2% in February. AdvertisementRaising the alarmBank of America analysts have suggested that stubborn inflation could mean the Fed doesn't start cutting rates until March next year. It's no wonder, then, that investors are waiting impatiently for the Fed to cut rates. Fundstrat's famously bullish boss, Tom Lee, proclaimed this week that it's dropping "like a rock" and the first rate cut is still likely to be in June.

Persons: —, Paul Volcker, Jerome Powell, Powell, Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn, Einhorn, Greenlight, Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, Gary Shilling, Julia La Roche, We've, Merrill Lynch's, they've, Shilling, It's, Fundstrat's, Tom Lee Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, of America, CNBC, Trust, Wall Street, Fed

☆ A notorious stock-market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 declines warns that conditions are 'consistent with the risk of an abrupt air-pocket, panic, or crash' — and the S&P will fall 50%-70%
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Hussman FundsThese levels indicate the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years, according to Hussman's math. AdvertisementBy the time the current market cycle bottoms out, the S&P 500 could well have fallen by 50%-70%, Hussman said. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 33% over the past year.

Persons: —, John Hussman's, Hussman, he's, we've, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, There's, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Gary Shilling Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Exchange, Federal Locations: Miami

☆ Market prophet Gary Shilling warns stocks could crash 30% — and says the odds are 'very much in favor of a recession'
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks may crash 30% and a recession could hit within months, Gary Shilling said. Shilling predicted the housing market would rebound in time, and dismissed de-dollarization fears. AdvertisementA legendary market prophet has warned that overpriced stocks may come crashing down, and a recession might strike within months. "Stocks are very, very expensive now" relative to both corporate earnings and rival assets like Treasury bonds, Gary Shilling recently told the Retirement Lifestyle Advocates radio show. The president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. is known for making several prescient market calls over the past four decades.

Persons: Gary Shilling, Shilling, —, Merrill Lynch's, bitcoin, It's, there's Organizations: Service, Polaroid, Federal Reserve, Fed, Companies, Homes, greenback

☆ Consumers fended off a recession — but keep spending like there's no tomorrow
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewAmerican consumers have staved off a recession by relentlessly spending despite soaring inflation, surging interest rates, multi-industry turmoil, and wider economic jitters. AdvertisementBurry predicted that dwindling savings and ballooning debts would choke consumer spending, eroding corporate earnings and sparking a wider recession. That's going to lead to a retrenchment in consumer spending as we get into the new year." That "brings us just a little closer to the consumer recession that nobody believes is going to happen," he added. "With those sources of funding largely exhausted, consumer spending will no doubt grow more slowly than after-tax incomes in future years."

Persons: —, Here's, Michael Burry, Elon, Elon Musk, Spencer Platt, Carl Weinberg, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, who's, Shilling Organizations: Service, Business, Twitter, Scion Asset Management, Elon Musk, Getty, Rosenberg Research, North Locations: North American

☆ Google is starting to feel like any other business, and staging a comeback won't be easy
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, we're looking at how Google has gone from the tech industry's vanguard of cool to just another boring company . AdvertisementGoogle has long stayed atop Silicon Valley's volatile popularity contest — but the best place to work in tech is starting to feel like any other business , Business Insider's Hugh Langley and Lara O'Reilly write. Bureaucracy, an aversion to risk, and deference to Wall Street over employees — things Google long eschewed — have become the norm. The latest example is the debacle surrounding Gemini — its flashy new AI model that faced backlash for being too "woke."

Persons: —, Rebecca Zisser, Hugh Langley, Lara O'Reilly, Alistair Barr, Sundar Pichai, Hugh, Lara, Mateusz Wlodarczyk, BI's Peter Kafka, it's, David Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, Snowflake's Frank Slootman, Ozgur Hakan Aslan Toyota, Boxabl, Elon Musk, Tesla, Hewlett Packard, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Google, Business, Gemini, Meta, Big Tech, OpenAI, Corporations, Nvidia, SEC, Universal Music Group, Universal, BI Locations: —, New York, London

☆ A trusted indicator is fueling recession warnings from Jeremy Grantham and other gurus. What you should know about the Leading Economic Index.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.

Persons: —, Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American

☆ This legendary investor likes taking contrarian views — but only if they meet 3 criteria
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-11 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewFrom Michael Burry's "Big Short" against the housing market to Warren Buffett's warnings during the dot-com bubble, some of the biggest names in finance have taken contrarian stances that paid off. Legendary forecaster Gary Shilling is also defying market consensus by warning the S&P 500 could crash 30%, and predicting a recession will strike this year. He told Business Insider in an interview he actively seeks to disagree with Wall Street for several reasons. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: —, Michael Burry's, Warren Buffett's, Gary Shilling, Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, John Paulson, doesn't, Copernicus, David Rosenberg, it's Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Newton

☆ Bank credit is shrinking for the first time since the Great Recession – and that's a red flag for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The last one was during the Great Recession, brought about by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The extended slump in bank lending comes as many Wall Street experts continue to project a pessimistic outlook for the economy, despite the surprisingly upbeat trend seen in 2023. Recession warningsThe US economy defied forecasters' gloomy predictions by dodging a recession last year, with strong consumer spending helping to prop up growth. AdvertisementBut not everyone on Wall Street is so cheerful. It might be a mild recession or a heavy recession," he added, noting it's possible that the downturn bites in 2024.

Persons: —, Jeffrey Gundlach, Henry Kravis, David Rosenberg, Steve Hanke, Gary Shilling, Continentale, Janet Yellen, haven't, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Hanke, Rosenberg, it'd Organizations: Service, Business, Governors, Federal, Wall, Louis Federal Reserve, Bank, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed, JPMorgan, Fox Business Locations: Bank, Ukraine, Gaza

☆ Stocks may crash 30%, a recession looks imminent, and commercial real estate is a bubble about to burst, market prophet says. Here are Gary Shilling's 8 best quotes from a new interview.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-19 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Market prophet Gary Shilling issued a raft of dire warnings to investors in an interview this week. Stocks may crash 30%, a recession is imminent, and commercial real estate is a bubble about to burst, he said. AdvertisementStocks could crater by 30%, the US economy is careening toward recession, and commercial real estate is a bubble about to burst, a legendary market prophet warned this week. "I think the biggest bubble right now is commercial real estate. This isn't of the magnitude of the subprime-mortgage bonanza, but I think it is a bubble which is beginning to crack."

Persons: Gary Shilling, Shilling, —, Julia La Roche, I've, they've, we're, John Paulson Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve

☆ Prepare for stocks to plummet 30% and a recession to strike any day now, legendary market prophet says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks could plummet by as much as 30%, a legendary Wall Street forecaster has said. He said he was betting on Treasury bonds and the US dollar and against stocks and commodities. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementPrepare for stocks to plunge by a third and a recession to strike imminently, a legendary market forecaster has said. "You'd have a further decline of about 30% from here to get that 40% overall decline, peak to trough," he said.

Persons: Gary Shilling, —, I've, Julia La Roche, we're, Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, he's Organizations: Wall, Service, Co, Reserve

☆ One of the most accurate Wall Street strategists in 2022 shares 3 reasons a recession is still on the way — putting stocks in danger of a significant pullback
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In a recent note to clients, Kantrowitz highlighted unemployment claims data leading up to the Great Recession. But looking at the revised data, a clearer trend starts in September of 2007, he said. Looking at prior yield curve inversions, it's taken more than 12 months for jobless claims to start to meaningfully trend upward. Piper SandlerAnother indicator that tells Kantrowitz that jobless claims are going to start increase is — interestingly enough — furniture sales. For example, Bank of America and JPMorgan strategists both walked back their 2023 recession calls earlier this year.

Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, it's, Kantrowitz, there's, he's, Jeremy Grantham, Gary Shilling Organizations: Wall Street, The Conference Board, RBC, Bank of America, JPMorgan

☆ A 32-year market vet warns a recession is still on the way as the Fed's jumbo rate hikes continue to work their way into the economy — and shares 3 reasons why stocks are overvalued by 35%
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The hikes scared investors into thinking a recession would be on the way. But today, the labor market remains strong and inflation is under 4%, prompting rosier outlooks about the fate of the US economy. Rate hikes take time to work their way into the economy. But their main adversary going forward is going to be the Fed, with inflation still elevated. The Consumer Price Index is at 3.7% year-over-year, and core inflation, which the Fed watches closely, is even higher at 4.3%.

Persons: Michael Pento, Piper Sandler, Pento, Louis, LEI, Greg Boutle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Jeremy Grantham, Merrill Lynch, Gary Shilling, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Conference, Stock, Robeco, Nasdaq, BNP, Fed

☆ A legendary economist who called the 2008 recession says another downturn is knocking on the door — and warns stocks will end up falling 40% by the end of this market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.

Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's

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